Real estate losses from the two most destructive wildfires that scorched Southern California in January—the Palisades and Eaton fires—could amount to more than $30 billion, affecting properties from condos to multimillion-dollar mansions and everything in between.   

A new analysis carried out by the Los Angeles Times, comparing Cal Fire’s assessments of buildings either razed or damaged by the fires with Los Angeles County Assessor parcel records, sheds new light on the estimated costs of the historic natural disaster.

According to Cal Fire, the January wildfires ravaged 16,249 structures in Los Angeles County. That number includes about 11,500 homes. 

The Palisades and Eaton fires, which ignited in the first days of the new year and burned for nearly a month before being fully contained, annihilated 56% of the properties in the wealthy enclave of Pacific Palisades, and nearly half of the properties in the city of Altadena.  

Based on the Times’ analysis, the twin blazes caused the displacement of 13,000 households. It includes close to 9,600 single-family homes; more than 100 condos; 678 apartments; more than 2,200 duplex units and bungalow courtyard homes; and 373 mobile homes. 

Many of the residential dwellings wiped out by the wind-whipped flames were luxury properties, including 79 single-family homes with a price tag of between $10 million and $23 million that wound up in the path of the Palisades inferno.

Notably, the typical home in the Palisades fire boundary encompassing the star-studded Pacific Palisades neighborhood had an estimated value of $3 million in January, according to the latest figures from Realtor.com® researchers. During the same period, the median home within the boundaries of the Eaton fire, which included Altadena, had a more modest estimated value of $1.3 million. 

For comparison, the median home list price in the Los Angeles metro in January was just under $1.1 million.

As of Friday, there were 83 properties in Pacific Palisades listed for sale, ranging in price from $209,000 for a vacant lot to $36.9 million for an eight-bedroom megamansion with a pool and tennis court. 

Overall, the Times’ analysis estimates that $22 billion in real estate was devoured by the blazes in Pacific Palisades, and $7.8 billion in the more working-class Altadena.

But those figures represent a fraction of the total damage and economic loss in the L.A. region, which AccuWeather estimated to be somewhere between $250 billion and $275 billion.

AccuWeather’s estimate accounted for not only the destruction and damage of homes and businesses, but also various other factors, including damage to utilities and infrastructure, the long-term cost of rebuilding, cleanup and recovery costs, emergency shelter expenses, long-term health care costs, lost wages, and housing displacement.

Experts offer a range of wildfire loss estimates

It has been challenging for experts to attach a precise value to all the real estate lost in the recent California fires. The Times’ new estimate by and large dovetails with previous calculations, but falls on the lower end of the spectrum.

An early assessment by Realtor.com economists found that more than $40 billion in residential properties were within the boundaries of the Palisades and Eaton blazes.

Senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones points out that the estimate from Realtor.com was based on the total value of homes located in the areas affected by the fires, not losses.

The Times’ $30 billion estimate “sounds reasonable as some properties were spared or not completely destroyed,” she adds.

“The immense devastation from these fires will impact the area and its residents for years to come as efforts to restore and rebuild carry on,” says Jones.

In a report published earlier this month, UCLA’s Anderson School of Management put the real estate losses in the Pacific Palisades and Altadena ZIP codes at $33.94 million.

Looking beyond scorched homes and condos, researchers with the UCLA Anderson Forecast estimated the total property and capital damage from the two largest fires at between $95 billion and $164 billion, with insured losses potentially reaching a stunning $75 billion. 

The UCLA report’s authors acknowledged that the estimates in their report are based on various assumptions and might be subject to future revision.

L.A.’s property tax revenue set to take a major hit

The negative economic impact of the unprecedented fires could be far-reaching and affect the entire L.A. County, including its education system.

The Times’ analysis contends that L.A. County government agencies could lose as much as $61 million annually in property tax revenue while the destroyed and damaged homes are being rebuilt—a process that could take years.

California’s Proposition 13 fixes the base property tax rate at 1% of the assessed value of the property, typically set at the time of the home purchase.

Proposition 13 also caps the annual increases in assessed value at 2%, or the inflation rate, whichever is lower. 

The Times calculated the number of tax-paying land parcels destroyed or damaged at 10,699—and concluded that close to 50 public agencies will see a drop in revenue derived from property taxes.

At least 18 school and community college districts in the area stand to lose a total of $32.05 million in property tax revenue. 

Los Angeles County is expected to lose the single largest share at more than $13 million, followed by the City of Los Angeles at $9 million.

Meanwhile, the California Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), a nonpartisan advisory body, has released an even bleaker projection, estimating that the tax revenue losses from destroyed and damaged structures within the fire boundaries could amount to anywhere between $100 million and $200 million.

In its analysis published on Feb. 10, the LAO took into account more than 19,000 parcels with $28 billion in assessed value, and used the Los Angeles County assessor data and damage reports from Cal Fire to calculate a drop of $10 million to $20 million in assessed value.

These property tax revenues would have gone to the County and City of Los Angeles and the cities of Pasadena and Sierra Madre, as well as local school districts and special districts. 

Both the LAO and the Times agreed that California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s executive orders giving property owners in 18 hardest-hit ZIP codes until April 2026 to pay their property taxes could result in local governments and school districts waiting longer for tax revenue funds.

There might be some good news on the horizon. As the UCLA Anderson Forecast explained, homes that were destroyed in the fire and then rebuilt might be reassessed at a higher value, often far beyond the old assessed value under Proposition 13, which would result in a dramatic spike in property tax revenue in the future.